Tariffs won’t restore complete US Supremacy

In the face of trade deficits with numerous countries and an ambitious shift towards isolationism, President Donald Trump has claimed that tariffs will ultimately return the United States to its throne as absolute hegemon. But I think he’s stuck in a world of the past, and regardless of how aggressively he uses tariffs against allies or rivals, it won’t return.

Trump held back his new “Reciprocal Tariffs,” which are based on the balance of trade we have with countries, on every country except China as of April 17. Instead, the world was imposed with the blanket 10% minimum tariff, while China will receive a 125% tariff due to its retaliatory tariff. He maintained a 20% tariff on all imports from China and a 25% tariff on some Canadian and Mexican imports for their relation to fentanyl in North America. He also revived a 25% tariff from his first term on all steel and aluminum imports. These tariffs stack additively. 

In practice, tariffs increase prices on imported goods, encouraging consumers to buy relatively cheaper, domestically-made alternatives. To avoid the tax, manufacturers paying those tariffs are incentivized to produce domestically instead of importing, gradually creating jobs and employing domestic workers. Additionally, due to their economic effects, they can be used as political leverage against trade partners.

Trump pointed at trade deficits and claimed that the United States was being “ripped-off” by the countries of the world, preaching that production needed to return to America in order to stop it. Traditionally as protectionism, using tariffs would encourage that transition towards self-sufficiency. However, with the scale they’re being used at, and their erratic on-and-off state, it seems that Trump intends to use tariffs primarily as a “big stick,” pressuring any and all countries into obeying America.

This could theoretically work to advance American interests — if it were the 20th century. The United States emerged as the leading world power after the World Wars, with worldwide influence that was strengthened by policies during the Cold War. Countries essentially relied on America’s aid and alliance, but today there are extensive trade networks, several dozen developed countries, and an existent preference towards globalist ideals.

Stability and security run the world’s trade networks, and Trump’s unpredictable actions threaten them. Falling value on the dollar index and rising yield on U.S. Treasury bonds already signal weakening demand of the American dollar, a vital branch of U.S. influence. Tariffs made a crack in the image of safe stability the United States has held for decades, and both allies and rivals noticed. This doesn’t just harm America now, it dissuades future investors from investing in American companies, redirecting their interests elsewhere, possibly to rivals.

The United States, through Cold War policies like the Marshall Plan, fostered the rise of globalism and internationalism, ideas that were adopted by many modern developed countries and laid the foundation for today’s trade networks. Basically, present-day countries could gradually invest in shifting away from the United States, focusing on marketing towards other available consumer markets and retaining global trade stability, while the United States appears to move further towards isolationism. 

History has shown that tariffs often raise tensions, ultimately harming both parties involved as they continuously impose tariffs on each other. Moreover, Trump is dismantling decades worth of influence the United States has accumulated, practically giving China the stepping stones to take our place. It’s not inherently bad, but if global peace is to be achieved any time soon, it should be concerning.